OK, here's my experience and advice:
Find some sort of online "weight club". I've used
www.vektklubb.no (only in norwegian I think). The whole idea is that you register everything you eat and how much you excercise. Based on your weight, height, gender, age etc the calories and weight loss/gain are automatically calculated. You state how much and how fast you want to loose weight. It's really spot on!!! Doesen't matter what you eat, just stick to the planned max. calories intake each day and you'll get there!
I think it's hard (if not impossible) for most people to "intuitively" do it right "by yourself"... But after entering your intake for some weeks you get kinda subconscious as to what you can eat and how much. But if you get off track, start entering everything again!
Excercise is not at all crucial to loosing weight, but rather very good for your health, energy and life expectancy. 30 mins walk each day is more than enough!
Good luck!